Change and Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Indices During 1960–2010 and 2011–2100 in Abidjan District (Côte d’Ivoire).

Abstract

Flood risk occurrence is very often related to heavy precipitation. The availability of analysis of weather data is a potential source for long term flood risk prediction and management. The aim of this paper was to determine and analyse trends of observed and future rainfall indices from 1961 to 2010 and 2011 to 2100 using rclimdex model in Abidjan District. This work was based on the integration of daily weather data within rclimdex model throughout quality control test, homogeneity test and indices calculation of ten (10) rainfall indices. The results showed an overall decrease trend of the rainfall indices namely through a negative trend in the annual total rainfall, maximum number of consecutive wet days, and number of extremely wet days during the period from 1961 to 2010. Exception was made from 1995 to 2010 where the same indices showed a positive trend. However, the results have showed also an increase trend of consecutive wet days (CWD), Simple daily intensity index (SDII) and Number of heavy precipitation days (R10) indices from 2011 to 2100. Thus these findings explain the nowadays flood occurrence and indicate that rainfall extreme under flood risk events will continue in the future. Therefore it call decision makers for preparedness and mitigation strategies in Abidjan District.