Evaluating the impact of an agricultural land‐use change adaptation strategy on household crop production in semi‐arid Ghana.

Abstract

In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land-use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub-model was then linked to the crop yield sub-model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub-model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision-making. This was simulated for a 20-year period, and compared with the business-as-usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business-as-usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land-use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable.